LfC Gulf Coast Conference: Way too early predictions

Pensacola, Tallahassee and Gaffa FC look like safe postseason bets, but who will take the fourth and final spot? We’re not even halfway through the season, but here’s a look ahead.

What we know so far

Three weeks into The League for Clubs’ Gulf Coast Conference season, the nine sides are beginning to sort themselves. Pensacola, Tallahassee and Gaffa FC are clearly contenders, while Gulf Coast United and Valdosta FC look like pretenders.

The four clubs in the middle — Sowegans SC, AFC Mobile, Union 10 FC, and Pensacola FC Academy — remain a bit of a mystery.

The graphic below, provided by TLfC, is complete through Sunday’s matches:

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Most of the names are familiar, having competed against one another in the Gulf Coast Premier League and/or National Premier Soccer League over the past decade or so before reuniting in the first-year TLfC. The nine teams will play 10 matches each, with the top two from each division meeting in a postseason conference tournament.

Beasts in the East

The Pelicans and Battle Lions of Pensacola and Tallahassee, respectively, are clearly the class of the conference; they were ranked second and fifth among the leagues 52 teams nationally in the last TLfC power ratings.

The Capitol City side edged their Emerald Coast rivals 1-0 in a slugfest Sunday at Pensacola’s Ashton Brosnaham Stadium, but it wasn’t a decisive victory by any means. Tallahassee stayed undefeated through three matches and tied Pensacola and Gaffa FC with nine points, but despite the loss, Pensacola held on to first place on goal differential, +14 to +11.

Remember the sports mantra that defense wins championships? The Pelicans and Battle Lions have conceded just three goals apiece, but Pensacola has played four matches and is the only club allowing fewer than a goal a game (0.75).

Each side already has beaten both of their division foes “from Georgia” without much challenge: Pensacola beat Sowegans SC 4-2 and Valdosta 9-0, and Tallahassee outscored Valdosta 7-2 and Sowegans 6-1.

Not surprisingly, the Battle Lions (14 goals, 4.67 per match) and Pelicans (17, 4.25 per match) lead the conference in scoring, followed closely by Gaffa FC (15 goals, 3.75 per match).

The Sowegans (Southwest Georgians) have won twice, but the six points are misleading; both its victories (2-0 and 4-0) have come against woeful Valdosta, taking its lumps in its first season.

It seems likely that the June 11 rematch between the Pelicans and Lions in Tally will decide who wins the East.

Best and the rest in the West

Like Pensacola and Tallahassee, Gaffa FC has nine points and an impressive goal differential (+10). The Jackson, Miss.-area team’s only loss is to Pensacola (2-4), and it’s beaten up on divisional foes Gulf Coast United (5-1 and 2-0) and AFC Mobile (6-0).

Gulf Coast United, from Gulfport, Miss., has scored three goals in three matches but allowed 10. Early results aren’t promising.

It’s too soon to know much about the conference’s Alabama teams; AFC Mobile, the Azaleas, have played just twice, a 1-1 tie against Pensacola FC Academy and the 0-6 beat-down by Gaffa. Union 10 FC, which plays in Daphne, played its first game last week and tied PFC Academy 1-1.

Could Pensacola’s academy team challenge for the second spot in the west? It managed a 3-2 home win against GCU, but that’s not strong resume material. Still, the Pelicans “A” team benefits from Pensacola’s team culture, strong organization and experienced coaching. It’s not implausible to think they could sneak into the last playoff spot.

This week’s matches

If the less experienced Pensacola Academy team wants to challenge in the West, they have two winnable matches coming up in Week Four: Thursday at Gulf Coast United and at home Saturday against Gulf Coast United.

West favorite Gaffa FC will play Union 10 home (Thursday) and away (Saturday) this week.

Frontrunners Pensacola FC (the senior team) will host Sowegans on Saturday, and AFC Mobile will travel to Tallahassee on Sunday to meet the Battle Lions.

Last week’s scores

• Gaffa FC 2, Pensacola FC 4

• Pensacola FCA 0, Union 10 1

• Sowegans 4, Valdosta 0

• Gulf Coast United 0, Gaffa FC 2

• Pensacola FC 0, SC Tallahassee 1

This week’s matches

Thursday, May 29

• Gaffa FC vs. Union 10, 7 p.m.

• Gulf Coast United vs. PFC Academy, 7 p.m.

Saturday, May 31

• PFC Academy vs. Valdosta, 4 p.m.

• Union 10 vs. Gaffa FC, 5 p.m.

• Pensacola FC vs. Sowegans, 7:15 p.m.

Sunday, June 1

SC Tallahassee vs. AFC Mobile, 3 p.m.