Two Questions for Charlotte FC Going into the Playoffs
As CLTFC head into the playoffs, who can help Zaha create goals and how big of an impact can come from Harry Toffolo?
*This post is a repeat of what I recently posted on my personal Substack. If you want to read all of my CLTFC analysis, consider subscribing to that Substack as well. Enjoy the article!
As the regular season concluded, Charlotte FC found themselves exactly where they wanted to be. Before the season, we expected Charlotte FC to compete for a top 4 place in the Eastern Conference, with an acceptable finish being somewhere between 3rd and 5th place. While Charlotte finished as hoped in 4th, securing home-field advantage in the first playoff series, it was a turbulent ride to get there. From sitting top of the conference in April, to falling out of the playoff spots completely in June and then rebounding with a 9 game win streak, the hopes and expectations of this team have drastically changed all season.
But through the ups and downs, CLTFC accomplished its mission of the regular season and now the focus is on getting 5 more wins to lift the MLS Cup. As CLTFC heads into the playoffs, there are two big questions that I see Charlotte needing to answer in order to have postseason success. While many other factors will play into these next matches, these are the two big things I will be watching to see if CLT can answer.
Question 1: Where will the goals come from?
Charlotte FC has built its identity on a strong defense and I expect Charlotte to defend well with high intensity. But to make a run in the playoffs they are going to need goals. Since Pep Biel has suffered a season ending injury during the leagues cup, CLTFC’s goals have only come from 2 main sources, transition attacks and through Zaha. Charlotte scored one of each type of these goals against Philadelphia to end the season. Let’s analyze these goals, how they are created, and then look at potential playmakers that could add another threat to the attack.
Transition Attacks
For transition attacks I am referring to when CLT is able to attack against a defense that is not set by playing in behind them. This can be from a turnover (such as the goal against NY Red Bulls) or can be from beating or by-passing a high press which I also refer to as transition-like attacks.
With the departure of Agyemang, most of our transition and transition like attacks go down our right side with Kerwin Vargas being involved. For the first goal against Philly, we start with a goal kick and the Union set up their high press.
The Union have pushed all 6 players into Charlotte’s defensive third with the plan to press against this goal kick. This is difficult to play out of but if successful, Charlotte will have a 4v4 against their defenders.
Kahlina plays out to Byrne who passes it back to Malanda. Malanda is barely able to get a pass off and clears it long with incoming pressure.
However this clearance winds up being an incredible pass over the top of the defense. In the clip above Vargas has dropped into our half and Union’s left back follows with him. This ball by Malanda goes over the top of both of them allowing Vargas to get behind their back line.
From here CLT has the advantage as Union only has 2 defenders back and they are retreating towards their goal. As the closest defender moves to close down Vargas, he plays it into the middle. The other defender shifts to mark Toklomati but that leaves the back post wide open for Zaha to run into and score.
These attacks have been a key to Charlotte’s defensive identity for both years under Dean Smith and can create great chances. The issue is these chances require the opponent to either press high or commit numbers forward. At some point in these playoffs, I expect Charlotte will be losing at some point and will need a goal. At those times, the other team will likely sit deep, not allowing us to get in behind and we will need a different way to create chances. Fortunately, that is part of why Zaha was signed.
When losing or against less possession heavy teams, these chances may not be available to get in behind the opponent’s defensive line. Basically, these chances are unlikely to be available when CLT needs a goal due to their trailing the game. At those points, CLT will need to rely on attacking in the final third against a set defense.
Set Attacks through Zaha
When in the attacking third against a set defense, Charlotte has mostly relied on Zaha to create chances and score goals. When Zaha receives the ball in the left half-space he poses multiple threats and helps create space to score goals.
The second goal against Philadelphia shows part of this threat. The ball starts with Diani on the left side as Diani, Zaha and Toffolo combine to form a triangle. Notice below how Zaha (yellow underline) starts out wide with Toffolo (pink underline) in the left half-space.
Toffolo makes a run wide but it is not open. The ball works back to Diani as Toffolo and Zaha switch spots. As the ball goes wide to Toffolo on the touchline we now see Zaha starting to work more centrally.
From here Toffolo plays into Zaha and makes a run down the line. Zaha draws in 3 defenders allowing him to play a one touch pass allowing Toffolo to get toward the end-line.
From here Toffolo can get in a cross and Union’s defensive marking is all wrong with their left back too far central on Toklomati. Toffolo finds Vargas on the back post with plenty of space and Vargas does well to take the chance.
While Zaha does not get a goal contribution. His pass to put Toffolo behind the defense is what creates this goal and turns a CLT possession into a dangerous attack.
Zaha this season has added a new dimension to this attack allowing us to score more consistently against an organized and set defense. However since Biel has been injured, Zaha has been the only avenue for CLT to create against a set defense. Since the League’s Cup, CLTFC have scored 12 goals of which 8 of them Zaha has gotten the goal, assist, or “hockey assist” (pass leading to the assist). The rest of them have been transition attacks or goals from set pieces. With Zaha set to miss game 1 of the playoffs due to red card suspension and with the expectation teams will game-plan to limit Zaha, I believe CLT will need another avenue to break down set defenses in the playoffs.
In search of a second playmaker
So this leads me to my first question. Other than Zaha, who can CLT rely on to create goal-scoring chances. This is not necessarily getting the goal or even assist, but being an avenue where they can receive the ball and create an attacking threat. I do not have the answer but I see 3 potential players:
Idan Toklomati: Toklomati has been great this season, especially since becoming the main striker. Toklomati’s off ball movement in the box has made our crosses and cutbacks more dangerous. His ability to drop in to link up play has helped us get the ball to Zaha and Biel in more dangerous positions. I think that Toklomati could provide a playmaking threat by dropping into the midfield, receiving the ball and turning to play forward either Vargas or maybe a run from Bronico in the midfield.
Ashley Westwood: Last season, Westwood had multiple assists as a deeper lying playmaker. Despite his position being further away from goal, Westwood has the ability to deliver excellent passes. If CLT can build up without Westwood having to drop into the backline, it could allow him to move forward and make more key passes in the final third.
Liel Abada: And finally, CLT’s other designated player has a chance to be a key contributor. In game 1 I expect him to play on the left replacing Zaha. While he does not pose the same dribbling and passing threat, hopefully he can take the freedom to drift centrally as a way to receive in dangerous positions and then combine with Toklomati to create chances. After game 1, Abada may get chances off the bench if CLT is losing. Again, in those situations he may have the freedom to drift centrally allowing him to create.
I am not sure who, if any, of these players can fill the playmaking gap left by Biel, but I do think CLT will need another attacking source other than solely relying on transitions and giving the ball to Zaha.
Question 2: What can Harry Toffolo do?
Despite signing on August 5th, Harry Toffolo only has played 2 matches for CLT this season. However, he appears healthy for the playoffs and may give CLT the left back they have been missing all season.
All season CLTFC have been lacking a complete left back to fit Dean Smith’s system. The list goes somewhat like this:
It started with Tim Ream but he lacked the pace to defend against wingers and could not provide an attacking threat moving forward.
Then it was Souleyman Doumbia who looked the part but he could not stay healthy.
Then it was Jakheele Marshall-Rutty who helped unlock Zaha and our left side attack, but lacked the defensive ability to lock down that side.
Lastly it was Nathan Bryne who did fine but he is much better on the right and he was limited in that role being right footed.
Essentially, Dean Smith has had to compromise on his left back all season. Ideally he wants his left full back to do the following:
Be quick and skilled enough to keep up with attacking wingers.
Be strong enough to defend against strikers in the box especially for back post crosses.
Provide width on the left in buildup to allow Zaha to drift centrally.
Make overlapping runs in attack to get crosses when Zaha pulls defenders centrally.
Based on his premier league experience, build, and limited tape in the MLS, I believe Toffolo can fill this criteria and, like Doumbia, be an ideal left full-back if he stays healthy. However, his limited minutes in this game shows glimpses that he may be able to do more than what is listed above and there is a chance Toffolo could be a key player in how he is used.
Inverting into the attack
While at the match, Toffolo caught my eye with how he was found in forward, central positions during out buildup. Twice in this match, Zaha would be wide in buildup and Toffolo would use that opportunity to move up and central.
This first time comes in the 8th minute, the ball swings over to Ream with Toffolo currently as the left back and Zaha wide near the far sideline.
But Toffolo starts with a jog then makes a run central and forward beyond the defense trying to give Ream an option to go over the top.
This is a type of run that CLT expects from Toklomati or Bronico, not our left back. And even after not getting the ball, Toffolo does not run back to his position but instead stays forward in an advanced central position. Look below at his position just 9 seconds later.
This movement forward and central looks planned as Toffolo also would use midfield rotations as a queue to move centrally. Just a few minutes later, CLT is back in buildup and Westwood drops into the defensive line.
Toffolo takes this chance to move forward but since Zaha is already out wide he drifts into that more central attacking space. In fact, as Ream gets the ball and steps forward, Toffolo is backpedaling and calling for the ball.
Nothing came of either of these movements but it shows Toffolo may be a key piece to helping Charlotte build up consistently and could open up new attacking avenues. On the flip side, Toffolo’s movements forward could leave Ream isolated if we have a turnover. I’m not sure what to expect yet but I am curious to see how Toffolo is used in the playoffs.
Conclusion
As CLT’s playoffs start today these are two big questions that I am curious to see. I do not expect Charlotte to win the MLS Cup but I do believe with the knockout nature that any team that makes the playoffs can win the whole thing. And Charlotte does have the talent and stars both offensively and defensively to compete and potentially beat any team. Regardless, I am excited to be at the bank for game 1!