When Do Results Matter?

And When is it Time to Panic?

While it seems like a very straight forward answer of, “Results matter when the stakes matter”, I do not feel that it is that simple. Birmingham Legion FC have played 3 preseason matches, one versus MLS side Atlanta United, one versus MLS Next Pro side Chattanooga FC, and USL League One side Chattanooga Red Wolves. With those matches, the 3 Sparks have yet to walk away with a win and have given up at least two goals in each match up.

Credit Birmingham Legion FC

Does that matter? Maybe. However, every single coach that I have ever spoken to has said that preseason means much less than even the most “locked in” fans think they do. Team are trying new tactics, new players are in the team, old players are in new positions, or even running a full line up of players who are trying out for the team. Even so, the purpose of the preseason is to prepare the players and coaches for the season. If the preseason doesn’t matter, then what purpose does the preseason even have?

Look For the Trends

The answer is, like all things, in the middle. What are the trends of the preseason? If a team were to lose or draw all 4 matches they play, but the results are: 0-1, 4-4, 2-3, and 0-0, then the results are mixed. Two matches of high scoring attack, but a revolving door defense, and another two matches of being absent in the final third, but are human embodiments of brick walls. What can you take away from that? It usually means that the team is trying things or maybe there are matches where trialists/academy players played for either side.

Meanwhile, if a team were to play four matches and the results are: 1-2, 3-2, 0-2, 3-3, then there is a consistency. The attack is mostly showing up, but the defense seems to be going through some changes.

Let’s take Birmingham Legion’s preseason, where the club has lost 0-2, 2-3, and 1-2. This makes a lot sense, considering that the team is replacing a center back that has been with the club for four years, has an injured center back, an injured central defensive midfielder (who was arguably the best player on the team in 2024), and has lost a central defensive midfielder with a transfer in Matthew Corcoran, who has moved to Nashville SC. The only center backs who were with the team last year in these matches are Phanuel Kavita and Ramiz Hamouda, who was unavailable due to international duty.

Okay, Now Answer the Question.

It matters once you get actual names on the back of jersey and the match says, “Match Week One” and not “Friendly”. However, that does not mean that you cannot pay attention to the patterns and ask questions about the team. In Legion’s case, it’s easy to say that the defense is in flux and that once the team knows the starting center back pairing and the number 6 is named, then they will be on their way. However, come match week one, if the team were to concede multiple goals once again, then it will also be very easy to see that the preseason was a true precursor for the season.

What matters are the trends, but as we all know, correlation does not equal causation. Just because the team is conceding a ton of goals does not always mean that the defense is bad. A team scoring a ton of goal does not always mean that the attack is amazing. Preseason is all about experimenting with your roster to see what gets results, and it is not just one team experimenting at a time. The 0-4 loss means just as much as the 4-0 win.